1871: Mortgage Credit Availability Index Drops! MacroVoices Patrick Ceresna: Long Inflation Cycle

Creating Wealth Real Estate Investing with Jason Hartman

Welcome to today’s episode of The Creating Wealth Show where Jason Hartman reminds you that there is an important distinction to make between interest rates, housing affordability and the ability to qualify for a loan based on the usual things, such as credit score and debt-to-income ratio. There's a general overriding concept of credit availability, not directly related to interest rates: this is the willingness of lenders to lend and the ability of borrowers to borrow, measured by the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). The credit supply is down, meaning it is now harder to get a mortgage than it used to be.

Jason Hartman welcomes Patrick Ceresna, Founder of Big Picture Trading and host of the MacroVoices Podcast to the show today to talk about the current macroeconomic picture we are facing today. Patrick explains why our inflation problems are not going away anytime soon. The only mechanism which the central banks have to slow an economy is the cost of credit, reflected in interest rate policy. However, the problem in this cycle is that when the inflation is not driven by massive demand, but rather supply issues, then the ability for monetary policy to actually have an impact diminishes.

Key Takeaways:

Jason's editorial

0:00 Welcome Empowered Investors from 189 countries world wide

1:45 Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI)

2:58 The Great Recession, the mortgage meltdown and The Big Short

5:50 Credit supply in a credit based economy

6:30 Empowered Investor Pro - EmpoweredInvestor.com

8:42 Wall Street is the modern version of organized crime

9:52 Regulating the food supply

11:49 Messaging apps and insider trading

14:31 Last week, the Euro reached parity with the dollar

17:40 Downward pressure on the inflationary spiral

18:46 Why Dave Ramsey is wrong

Patrick Ceresna's interview

21:17 Today’s guest Patrick Ceresna, Founder of Big Picture Trading

22:05 Patrick’s current macroeconomic picture

24:05 Energy shortage - oil vs green

27:48 CPI inflation numbers could come down, but it’s no merit of the Fed

29:26 The 70s had three waves of inflation

31:15 The global pandemic was a unique event

32:51 What investments do you own in an environment like this?

38:13 Could derivatives crash the global economy?

40:50 There a global system risk, not just American

42:44 We are in a fourth turning and there will be some major financial institution reset eventually

42:58 The destruction of purchasing value is the driver of a monetary driven inflation

47:01 The US dollar rising right now is going to keep inflation in check

49:59 At the end of every bear market is a once a decade opportunity to buy a lot of cheap stuff

51:38 A good investor or trader knows when to leave a party and go to a new one

53:37 Learn more at BigPictureTrading.com and check out Patrick’s podcasts: MacroVoices and Market Huddle

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