33 - Challenging the Nobel-prize winning theory that stands in the way of impact investing

The Impact Investing Podcast

In 1952, Harry Markowitz published a now-famous article where he proposed that investors should optimize portfolio expected return relative to volatility. Markowitz helped investors realize that by owning a diverse basket of investments, they could significantly reduce their risk without suffering a commensurate reduction in their expected return. This insight marked the birth of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) and, by the late 1960s would come to change how investors across the globe thought about investing. The trouble is, some of the assumptions underpinning MPT are keeping more investors from embracing ESG and impact investing.

Today's guest Jon Lukomnik joins us to discuss his new book Moving Beyond Modern Portfolio Theory: Investing That Matters. In the book, which is co-authored by James Hawley, Lukomnik and Hawley give a thorough accounting of how many of the assumptions underlying MPT are unrealistic or mistaken. For instance, MPT dictates that investors can mitigate systematic risks (the risks inherent in specific investment) through diversification but cannot influence large systemic risks (threats to the entire system) such as climate change or massive geopolitical instability. Lukomnik and Hawley argue that investors can and do affect systemic risks. For evidence, one need look no further than the 2008 financial crisis where investors fueled the rise of Mortgage-Backed Securities and other collateralized securities that eventually threatened to topple the global financial system. Similarly, MPT is wrong to assert that investors cannot mitigate systemic environmental or social risks like climate change. They can. But doing so requires investors to utilize tactics that aren't part of their traditional toolbox (e.g. shareholder engagement, policy & advocacy, etc.).

Jon is well-positioned to write this book. He is currently Managing Director of Sinclair Capital, a consultancy to institutional investors and formerly was a senior city official running New York City’s pension funds where he oversaw $80 billion in assets. He also co-founded the International Corporate Governance Network (ICGN), which now represents investors from 43 countries, overseeing some $42 trillion in assets. Jon has been a board member of public, private and not-for-profit companies. He is a three-time recipient of the NACD’s Directorship 100 award for being one of the 100 most influential people in US corporate governance. He has also been honoured by the ICGN, Ethisphere, Global Proxy Watch and others.

In this episode of the podcast, Jon and I discuss the major arguments from his book including; the importance of MPT; some of the flaws in its underlying assumptions; how the very success of MPT has further undermined the assumptions that underpin it; and why MPT apologists who argue that ESG and impact investing will underperform have it wrong. And be sure to stay tuned to the very end when Jon responds directly to a conversation from an investment podcast where the experts argue that ESG and Impact Investing is doomed to underperform.

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Resources from this episode:

• Moving Beyond Modern Portfolio Theory: Investing That Matters by Jon Lukomnik & James Hawley
• Jon Lukomnik's firm Sinclair Capital
• Ep 124 of the Rational Reminder Podcast with Professor Lubos Pastor