It's a holiday-shortened trading week to kick off the new month: September & October tend to be weaker trading months. Look for light volume and the impact of the corporate buy back window open and closing; markets tend to de-risk ahead of elections. Markets closed Friday at July's all-time high amid much bullish optimism. Markets today could retes…

Market Resiliency: It's always about the Fed. Nvidia and the AI story is still alive; Treasuries are overbought; Dollar General and Big Lots are struggling, surprisingly; where are the cracks in the economy? THe unwinding of the Tech sector, and how Google lets you know you're fired. The push to working longer; more and more are depending more and …

Looking ahead to September; why election polling is wrong; policy differences between Harris and Trump, and potential impact on markets. Nvidia earnings report rundown and stock buy back announcement. Nvidia owns 80% of market share for GPU's for data centers, with a new Blackwell chip on the way. Syppy & demand will be key to pricing. Groth expect…

Markets and Investors await today's earnings report from Nvidia, which has been tagged, 'The Most Important Stock in the World.' Expectations are VERY high, so there is little room for marginal results: There is more risk of disappointment than odds of exceeding expectations. Markets continue to hang on following the mini-correction last week, foll…

Today's show is all over the place: Durable Goods take a big jump...unless you remove Aircraft. Astronauts stuck in space: Elon Musk to the rescue. Markets are overbought; risk remains in Carry Trade. Market correction will likely be short and shallow. What if: Nvidia's report tomorrow. Stocks are setting up for correction: Stocks on sale? Fallacie…

Jerome Powell says interest rate policy is due for a change; market future predict four rate cuts by the end of the year. Rate cuts, the election, and dollar weakness all remain risks to the market, as well as a bit of over hang from the carry trade fiasco earlier this month. Nvidia to report this week; anything could happen. Markets again nearing …

8-23-24 How To Prepare For Recession by Lance RobertsDi Lance Roberts

Markets are again approaching all-time highs, with the NASDAQ exhibiting a most v-like recovery, up 11% in ten days. Markets' response to the largest (818-k) negative Jobs revision since 2009: Shrugs. FOMC meeting minutes indicate the time is "appropriate" for the Fed to lower rates. French women apparently have the longest life expectancy; Lance &…

Lance Roberts examines the cause and effect phenomenon of public policy and outcomes, rhetoric and promises; who'll control the House & Senate have more bearing on future legislation promised vs passed. Market breadth is expanding, which bodes well for bullish trends. Most of markets' lift is coming from stock buy back activity. Interesting observa…

Investors are waiting for this week's Jackson Hole confab, and will respond accordingly; when will markets take a breather? The DNC begins with economic nonsense. You cannot fix poverty by giving money away. Markets' rally straight up for eight days; pullback is coming: This is no time to chase stocks. Why the correction is over; three elements of …

Previews of the DNC Convention and Jackson Hole meeting previews, plus four Fed speakers on tap this week; Monkey Pox & Covid on the upswing ahead of election season. Markets stage a phenomenal recovery over the past five days; could interest rates reverse? Kamalanomics: A historical perspective on Economic Cycles: Why Prices Controls will exacerba…

July CPI clocks-on on-target for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, as it indicate inflation is trending downward. This would set-up the Fed for up to four rate cuts by the end of the year, but not so great for stocks. Watch for seasonal adjustments to Retail Sales reports. Markets will challenge 50-DMA, and could end its correction today. Your pers…

The PPI number came in weaker than expected with lower input prices. Today's CPI report (a 0.2% monthly increase = 3.2% annual rate) weakness could spur the Fed to lower rates, although to what extent remains unknown. The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Summit could also provide impetus for the Fed's action in September. Meanwhile, markets on Tuesda…

It's economic report week, with previews of today's PPI, tomorrow's CPI, and Thursday's Retail sales numbers for July; will weaker consumer spending appear? Stock buybacks have returned. Markets to re-test 100-DMA, and set up to move up to the 20-DMA. Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a c…

Laying the groundwork for Fed rate cuts: Will they or won't they in September, and by how much? 80% of S&P companies have reported; stock buy back windows are back open for business; Q-2 earnings summary: Not great, not terrible. Is consumer spending slowing (and will earnings estimates fall)? Last week's market volatility: Still in the process of …

With the turmoil of the past week, now is a good time to reassess your portfolio, and rebalance the risk. What is the deal with stocks advertising on TV? Wealth transferrence & Inheritances: How common is it for children to meet with parent and financial advisor? If there's money left... How RMD's can calter inheritances; how gift-giving works. Lan…

Economic Reports affected by Hurricanes Beryl & Debbie; market sell off continues. Inflationary data is still there; unwinding of Yen Carry Trade continues w/volatility. Lance recites a brief history of market crashes, causes & effects. The market correction actually started in July at peak; trapped-longs sold into market rally as exuberance revers…

Is the crisis over? Too soon to tell, but the Nikkei did rebound, the Yen is coming down, and the BOJ is hold steady on rates. Earnings season continues; and it's too soon to suume the market has found the bottom. Admonition to be wary of the narratives. Market rally into the 100-DMA, buyt unlikely to test resistance the 50-DMA just yet. Understand…

8-6-24 Is The Selling Over? by Lance RobertsDi Lance Roberts

August begins with weaker employment and the Fed hinting at the possiblity of a 1/2% rate cut; The Japanese Carry Trade blos up: What is it and why does it matter? Look for the largest spike in volatility since the pandemic. Be careful amid emotional headlines; Markets have already been over sold and now need to bounce. Anything that is a risk asse…

Richard and Danny discuss the week's market moves, and how bad news is actually bad news now; Intel's poor performance should be no surprise to astute investors; sometimes "value" stocks are value traps. Understanding (and avoiding) the day-to-day media hype. How to use "Money Buckets" to balance risks and demands on retirement funds; 2024 looks to…

Jerome Powell's presser was a snooze-fest, with the Fed's stance on interest rates remaining unchanged (at least they didn't hint of more rate hikes!) Markets also responded to clarifications on chip bans and performance reports from AMB & MSFT. The "AI is Dead" narrative is way too early; largest growth in data center construction is in the US. Re…

It's Fed Day, and Lance Roberts previews potential outcomes to be announced Thursday afternoon. Earnings season continues, with MSFT reporting revenue of only 29% for the quarter vs the anticipated 30% growth. Shucks. Our take on what to take from the NASDAQ correction: Opportunity. Markets are "flirting w disaster" around the 50-DMA: what will be …

Earnings season continues with 39% of S&P reporting this week; by week's end, 79% of companies will have shared results...and the buy back window opens anew. The Fed meeting begins today, with a slim chance for a surprise rate cut; a more dovish tone will encourage markets, however, and anticipate rate cut by September. Commentary on markets' 3% co…

Markets prepare to wrap July; what will the Fed do this week? McDonald's Quarterly Report showing consumer pullback. Article tease on trying MMT and the Sam Altman experiment. Market correction last week followed by rally bounce; sell-signals are still in place, indicating the correction isn't over. Commentary on Olympic Sacrilege and electric karm…

Rich & Danny recap Danny's recent accident; Rich's market summary includes a preview of today's PCE release. Markets are awaiting confirmation of a trend. Dealing with the election fallout on your money; markets have already priced-in everything you know. PCE will move markets today; there is still $500-billion in unspent government funds from the …

The S&P Global Services Index is "great," in contradiction to other eocnomic metrics; the first estimate of Q2 GDP is released today (up 2.8%); this will be revised. Important to note the behavior of GDP prior to past recessions, which are always back-dated. 350-days without a 2% correction, until Wednesday. Bill Dudley is calling for lower interes…

Lance Roberts provides a preview of Q2 GDP results, Temp hiring is tapering, and rising credit card delinquencies (because of unemployment) suggesting economic stress. A three year experiment in Universal Basic Income is an epic failure. Google earnings beat estimates, but YouTube's $1B revenue disappoints(!); Tesla puls back 7% on earnings results…

Measures of inflation are beginning to come down: Shelter costs are expected to decline over the next six-months; jobless claims and consumer delinquencies are on the rise. Markets rally after a three-day correction, retesting the 20-DMA, and back up again, thanks to mega-caps. The current Sell-signal may limit upside. Is the bull market just getti…

Lance discusses the markets' potential reaction to Biden's exit from Presidential race, and whether markets' rotation out of mega-cap stocks is sustainable; a rewind to February market conditions compared to now: A correction is expected before the election. Commentary on keeping market corrections into context; the mega-cap rotation and fewer medi…

Richard Rosso opines on Houston driver, CrowdStrike IT fail, and why he's changed his tune in thinking now might be a good time for the Fed to slip in a rate cut. Does the Fed have performance anxiety? Take care in benchmarking risk; market pullbacks are like a "Thanksgiving Oven," keeping things warm to use later. Study shows Gen-X'ers more likely…

Hey, kids--what day is it? Lance reorients himself and shares foreigners' perspectives of the U.S. Advice: Avoid the negativity and don't feed the fear. Looking at astronomical rotation from Large- to Small-cap stocks over the past five days: Russell 2000 is elevated by 4.4 standard deviations from its moving average. Markets needed a healthy rotat…

ay-3 of the RNC convention: Markets are already beginning to shift in anticipation of a presumed presidency and policies, with an eye on taxation and monetary policy. Donald Trump has said he will allow Jerome Powell to finish his term as Fed Chair, with Jamnie Dimon as Treasury Secretary. Meanwhile, we're watching major moves in the Russell 2000 w…

Lance Roberts begins with an earnings and economic reports preview; there is now a 90% chance of the Fed cutting rates sooner than later, and odds-makers now expecte three rate cuts. Small- and Mid-cap stocks are now three standard deviations above their averages; might be time to take profits. Lance explains the correlation between Fed funds rate …

That was the week that was: Hurricane Beryl, celebrity deaths, Trump assassination attempt, & Lance's Vacation. PPI show inflation trending downward, setting up for a Fed rate cut: July or September? Investor sentiment remains positive as markets continue to grind higher; investor eschew put-options, which are very cheap now...just like this time, …

The saga of the Roberts' Rental house concludes, at the cost of a coffee maker and other electrical appliances. How much will it cost to feed your hoard on July 4th? Market Commentary: light volume expected for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week. Adam Taggart, Jon Huntsman analysis: Symptoms vs reality. The importance of doing your own due…

Lance previews Q2 GDP estimates: The lag effect is showing up in GDP Estimate revisions, as the economy slows. The difference betweeen Inflation vs Deflation: The rate of change is slowing, but prices are remaining high. Commentary on interest rate behavior at end of Quarter; quarter-end rebalancing and dividend payments. The next chapter in the sa…

Why are Markets and the real economy mal-aligned? A tale of two parties in how Americans are faring financially. Re-thinking frivolous spending: How we blew through our savings. If you're in the market, you're loving it: 31-days of all-time highs (so far) in 2024. Rich and Matt discuss decision-making when approaching retirement: The myths about ta…

The Supreme Court strikes down the Chevron Deference that allowed government agencies to dictate policy, bypassing Congress. This may be the biggest decision since their relegation of abortion policy back to the states in striking down Roe v Wade. Meanwhile, markets end the 2nd quarter somewhat sloppily, but still positive for the year, possibly po…

Wrapping up the month of June, and the start of a new Quarter in July: Expect market volatility. Micron's miss will weigh on tech sector. Analysts' estimates have dropped by $5/share for Q3, lowering the bar in anticipation of next reporting season. Final Q1 GDP revision due today. Moving closer to July Fed meeting and possible rate cuts? Jobless c…

Pre-debate, Consumer Confidence, and a rally for Nvidia: earnings preview & market commentary: How long can markets remain over-bought? Investors' common mistakes: Acting too soon, and over-reacting. Markets can remain over-bought for a long time; a function of market momentum. Consumer confidence has been trending lower; the dichotomy of consumer …

Fed speakers are out this week, talking the same game. Lance examines corellation between the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and economic growth, and what posts to X (formerly known as Twitter) are to be called. Who does the Fed depend upon for data? There are many divergences in the data; Nvidia's bad day(s): Stock split and 13% drop is a cor…

Market volatility closed out last week, as investors prepare to wrap June and Q2 business. Triple-witching Friday added to the excitement, and markets remain extremely over bought. The Conference Board's Leading Indicator Index has been negatice for 27-mos in a row; always a precessor of Recession. Lance discusses investors' two common mistakes whe…

Markets are performing the job of the Fed; is the economy stronger? Rich & Jon look at the "Olive Garden economic indicator: Who's dining out, and who is staying in? How to unravel high restaurant prices 9and everything else, too!) Baby Boomers are still spending. Candid Coffee preview (egistration link below); Investor complacency is troubling. Th…

Will markets exhibit the typical summer weakness? Prepping for the election outcomes; correction coming now and later. Preview of housing numbers and initial jobless claims; market breadth is on the decline. The increasing gap between the S&P 500 and equal-weighted indexes. Lance discusses the relative strength of the Dollar vs other currencies. Pe…

Wall Street is closed today in observance of Juneteenth; we predict markets will be flat today. Retail Sales disappoint. Our analysis: Economy is slowing. Nvidia is now The Biggest Company; iShares rebalancing at the end of the month. Apple will swap places w Nvidia in index. Remember, Wall St.'s job is to sell you stocks, not to provide accurate i…

Markets are trading in a holiday-shortened week, thanks to the Juneteenth Holiday Wednesday. 50% of companies are now in stock buy back blackout period. Retail Sales report preview; a function of Consumer sentiment. Five Fed speakers out and about today; markets started weakly, then rallied 1%. Volume and breadth are weakening; markets are very ove…

Will "Sell in May & Go Away" repeat this summer? Will Wall Street 'de-risk" ahead of presidential election? Economic data continues to weaken and consumer sentiment takes a sharp drop; is this a trend-change? Markets return to over bought conditions; such extreme deviations from 20- and 50-DMA cannot last for long. Breadth is very narrow; market dr…

Parsing the economic data; Bonds vs ETF's; how bond pries and interest rates move; couting on the income. Danny & Jonathan address YouTube chatroom questions on Bond Yields and Buy/Sell dynamics; Dialing for Petro Dollars: A discussion of the US Dollar's strength, and whether it will still be the world's reserve currency in the future. Four good re…

June is half-over, and the stock buy back blackout begins today, removing that source of activity from the market. Economic data points continue to weaken, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell wants to see "more good data." There is an alternative universe of debt; the Fed wants weaker economy so they can lower rates. The S&P 500 sets another new, all-ti…