This OIES podcast is based on two articles in the Oxford Energy Forum No.143 on Green Industrial Policy. James Henderson talks to Michal Meidan and Anders Hove about their thoughts on China’s position in the energy transition and the role of innovation as part of its green industrial strategy. In the first part of the podcast Michal outlines her thoughts on why China now sits at the heart of the global energy transition and how countries in the West could, and perhaps should, address the questions of China’s dominance in certain green technologies and the minerals required in their implementation. Anders Hove then considers how innovation, when linked with industrial policy, has played a major role in the rapid development of technologies in China, with technology transfer, local content rules and the use of government-supported pilot projects and industrial clusters all being used as part of the process. Anders discusses whether other countries can learn from this combination of strategies and Michal concludes with thoughts on how the West can avoid dependency on China while still pursuing ambitious climate goals.…

In this podcast Anders Hove talks to Tom Moerenhout and Victoria Barreto Vieira do Prado about how Latin American countries are navigating the geopolitics of clean energy supply chains. Moerenhout and Vieira do Prado, scholars at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), discuss the challenges Latin American countries face in moving upstream from minerals extraction to higher-value parts of the supply chain. While most countries with critical minerals are seeking to localize processing or battery materials production, this is likely to prove difficult in practice. In particular, minerals processing and cathode or anode production are highly specialized fields, and depend heavily on access to key technologies and skills. However, there are reasons for optimism. The authors note that Latin American countries offer several advantages for Chinese, European and other clean energy players, in terms of stability and ESG (environmental, social and governance) standards, that could give them a leg up in attracting clean energy manufacturing. This podcast is the second in a series on ‘Responding to the China challenge: Diversification and de-risking in new energy supply chains.’ Moerenhout and Vieira do Prado’s article, ‘Latin America’s Positioning in Critical Minerals Geopolitics,’ is available in the Oxford Energy Forum Issue 142 on our website.…

In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Anouk Honore about the analysis which they contributed to the latest Gas Quarterly, which is available on the OIES website. The podcast starts with a discussion of current pricing trends before moving on to consider key issues around gas supply via pipeline and LNG to the European market, in particular the impact of the shutting of the Ukraine transit route. Anouk then talks about the main drivers of European gas demand, with a particular focus on the increased volatility in gas demand in the power sector as a result of the expansion of renewables in the electricity system. Having then discussed industrial and residential demand, we turn back to Jack who looks at the current state of storage and expectations for the rest of winter, including the impact of gas demand in Asia. The podcast concludes with both fellow giving their views on the outlook for the remainder of 2025, looking at the overall global gas balance and reflecting on the fact that 2025 may well be the last year of tight gas supply before the anticipated wave of new LNG projects starts to arrive in 2026.…

In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price about some of the key themes that will influence energy markets in 2025. They start by discussing the potential impact of the arrival of President Donald Trump in the White House for a second term, focussing on likely geopolitical and economic outcomes and how they might affect energy markets. Following on from that theme they look at how US LNG might emerge as an even greater force in global gas markets and whether it may be used as a geopolitical tool. The discussion then moves onto the broader outlook for the gas market in 2025 and the likely direction of prices in a relatively tight market. The future of Russian gas, and the possibility of a return to Europe if the war in Ukraine ends this year, is another potentially important theme, while Russia’s interaction with the OPEC+ group will also be key. The podcast looks at the outlook for oil markets and considers the ability of OPEC to manage price volatility during the year, before moving onto the ever-growing influence of China as a major source of hydrocarbon demand but also as a driver of energy transition technology and development. This leads to a discussion about the role of China in energy diplomacy, particularly as the US has once again pulled out of the Paris Agreement, which more broadly raises the question as to whether the COP process can retain its influence, with COP30 being a critical marker when countries should confirm greater ambition to reduce emissions.…

In this latest podcast from the OIES China energy programme, Michal Meidan talks to Philip Andrews-Speed and Anders Hove about the policies and corporate strategies that have led to China’s centrality in new energy supply chains. This podcast is the first in a series drawing on contributions to the December 2024 issue of the Oxford Energy Forum, Responding to the China challenge: Diversification and de-risking in new energy supply chains . The aim of the Forum was to unpack China’s dominance in new energy supply chains, assess how effective efforts to diversify away from China have been and think through the risks associated with dependency on China. In this first episode, Michal, Philip and Anders discuss the China play book, both the policy support that the Chinese government has offered in mining and refining as well as the various commercial approaches of vertical integration and intense innovation.…

In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Anders Hove talks to Research Fellow Dimitra Apostolopoulou about the Oxford Energy Forum (OEF) issue on storage titled “Powering The Future: Energy Storage In Tomorrow’s Electricity Markets”. In this podcast, we provide an overview of the OEF and talk about Dimitra’s paper co-authored with Rahmat Poudineh titled: “Coupling storage and renewables: in the physical or virtual world?”. We elaborate on the challenges of scaling up build rates of storage projects and the role of governments in supporting them. In particular, we discuss the co-location of renewable and storage systems and argue that the regulatory and market framework should provide the appropriate signals that favour physical or virtual linkage depending on the specific system conditions. We then talk about the main revenue streams of storage systems and what potential improvements are necessary in electricity market designs. Last, we discuss the need for long-duration storage, their different characteristics compared to shorter-duration storage technologies and how to attract adequate investments.…

In this latest podcast, Michal Meidan talks to Linxiao Zhu about the evolution of China’s solar photovoltaic manufacturing sector, how it has responded to trade defence measures in the past and how it is likely to evolve with the rise of green industrial policies. Linxiao discusses the origins of China’s solar PV sector and the importance of entrepreneurs and manufacturing innovation, arguing that subsidies had a smaller role than commonly assumed. He also talks about how the trade conflicts of the early 2010s impacted the industry in China, the EU and the US. Michal and Linxiao then discuss how more recent and impending trade conflicts — along with the rise of green industrial policies aimed at promoting import substitution — are reshaping the global supply chains.…

In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Katja Yafimava and Jack Sharples about the implications of the end of the contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. The podcast starts with a discussion about the conditions that would need to have been met for the contract to continue and why they failed to materialise and in particular considers the attitude of EU member states and the Commission. We then look at the impact of the closing of the Ukraine route and the loss of a further 12 bcma of Russian gas to the European market, considering how alternative supplies have been sourced, what direction flows are now taking and what the impact on prices has been. We also discuss the potential impact on gas storage levels in Europe at the end of winter and the outlook for gas prices in the summer months as storage is re-filled. Finally we look at the likelihood, or lack of it, that Russian gas could return to Europe via the Ukraine route and whether the Turkish Stream pipeline would be able to act as a replacement for lost volumes.…

In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Karl Smyth about the role of the energy-from-waste (EfW) sector in the energy transition, specifically how carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology can help decarbonize the sector. The podcast discusses the potential and readiness to retrofit EfW plants with CCS, including associated costs, before taking a deeper dive into the status quo of the sector in the UK. The podcast also evaluates different benefits of EfW+CCS, emphasising its capacity to generate valuable carbon removals, emission reductions and low-carbon energy, and highlights the role of public perception in enabling its large-scale commercialization.…

In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou talks to Senior Research Fellow David Robinson and energy consultant Mike Tennican (prior Senior Vice President and Director at National Economic Research Associates and a Professor at Harvard Business School) about their latest paper titled “Electricity, Green Hydrogen, and the Energy Transition”. In this podcast we discuss the forecast roles for both green hydrogen and electricity in the energy transition their complementary as well as their competing relationship. We then discuss the challenges associated with the demand for green hydrogen and the most likely demand to be replacing grey hydrogen. Last, we discuss lessons learned for green hydrogen from the electric power sector about the potential for increasing demand through cost reduction; successful business models; as well as appropriate support policies through regulation and markets.…

In this latest OIES podcast, Michal Meidan talks to James Henderson about the outcomes of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. They discuss the key issues going into the COP and the extent to which they were addressed: James highlights the gains as well as challenges around financing, the controversy around the role of oil and gas, progress on methane emissions as well as the issue of mitigation and adaptation. In addition to reflections on what was achieved, James highlights the questions that were ignored and the looming challenges facing the COP process, especially following the election of Donald Trump in the U.S.…

In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Anouk Honore and Jack Sharples about their latest paper on the winter outlook for gas markets. After a brief discussion the price rally in 2024 and the implications of the forward curve, the conversation then moves to the question of demand in Europe. In the power sector, gas is taking on a new and more volatile role as the back-up for renewable energy, responding to changes in wind and solar availability. The weather is also playing a role in the residential sector, where a colder winter is expected to push up gas demand compared to last year. Finally, a rebound is now being seen in the industrial sector as economic activity picks up. On the supply side, the discussion focuses on the lack of flexibility offered by pipeline supplies and the likelihood that exports from Russia will fall again in 2025 as the transit through Ukraine ends. This leaves Europe much more reliant on the global LNG market where supply growth has been limited over the past year and where some projects expected in 2025 have been delayed. As a result, the market is likely to remain tight, with a key focus being on the level of European stocks at the end of winter.…

In this latest OIES podcast, Michal Meidan, Philip Andrews-Speed and Anders Hove discuss how Trump’s re-election is perceived in Beijing; they assess what tariffs could mean for China’s economic growth trajectory, how Beijing would adapt its economic support measures in response and the implications for energy demand. Michal, Philip and Anders talk about the implications for bilateral trade and investments in energy between the US-China and how this could re-shape global energy markets. They also discuss how Trump’s re-election will impact global climate action and on clean energy innovation.…

In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood about his latest paper on global gas prices. The podcast starts with a brief discussion about the history of gas pricing and the globalisation of the gas market, highlighting the vital role played by LNG in joining up what was previously a series of regional markets. The podcast then examines four common fallacies associated with gas prices recently – the cost stack fallacy, the marginal price fallacy, the Europe hooked on Russian gas fallacy and finally the fallacy that the TTF market was broken in 2022 because of the record price spike. In addressing these fallacies Mike outlines his multi-dimensional framework for analysing the value of gas and relates it both to the recent history of gas prices but also to the outlook for the next few years.…

In this latest OIES podcast from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mostefa Ouki about his latest paper on “Market and EU green regulation challenges for MENA’s gas exporters to Europe.” The podcast looks at the key challenges faced by MENA gas exporters as demand for gas in Europe goes into decline in response to the energy transition and the desire to improve energy security in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Initially MENA exporters have benefitted from the EU’s search for alternative sources of gas supply, but over the medium to longer term the EU’s plan to decrease gas demand and to tighten rule on environmental standards will undoubtedly affect the MENA countries. In particular, MENA countries will need to find an adequate response to new methane regulations and in general will be forced to focus more on their GHG footprint in order to ensure that their hydrocarbon exports are competitive in the EU market. Furthermore, they will also need to balance the future of natural gas exports with the potential to send hydrogen to the European market, although this option is very much for the long-term as little progress has been made to date.…