CropGPT - Soybeans - Week 41

CropGPT - Podcast for Soft Commodities

Global Soybeans Market Weekly Summary: Key Highlights for October 13, 2024

• United States: The U.S. soybean market is experiencing a decline, with futures down by 21 to 30 cents, cash prices at $9.49, soy meal prices dropping by $2.10 per ton, and soy oil futures down by 175 points. Despite these declines, a recent private sale of 166,000 metric tons to China boosts confidence, contributing to an annual total of 1.695 billion bushels. Soy meal and soy oil exports, however, are seeing a 15% drop. The soybean crop condition slightly worsened to 63% rated good-excellent, with 47% of the harvest complete—surpassing the five-year average. Resilient prices are due to strong global demand, particularly from China.
• Brazil: Drought in Mato Grosso is delaying soybean planting, with only 2.09% of the expected area planted compared to the usual 9.47% by this time. The northeast is especially affected. This delay impacts subsequent planting of corn and cotton. Although 33.03% of the 2024-25 crop has been sold, irregular rainfall has caused caution among farmers. Brazil may see a 7-8 million ton reduction in soybean exports to China this season. In the longer term, Mato Grosso plans a 33.18% expansion in soybean areas over the next decade, supported by technological improvements, though weather challenges persist.
• Paraná: Planting in Paraná is progressing well, with 33% of crops already planted, marking the fastest pace since 2018, thanks to favorable rainfall forecasts. This swift planting is critical for planting secondary corn crops on time after soybean harvest.
• Eastern Ukraine: Severe drought conditions are challenging winter rapeseed planting, with soybeans showing better resilience in planting rates. This has led to adaptations in fertilization strategies to address the impacts of climate change.
• Argentina: Uneven rainfall is delaying soybean planting, with only 13.7% of corn planted, mainly in central areas like Entre Ríos. Corn acreage is estimated at 6.0 million hectares—a 15% drop due to October’s dry conditions. Production estimates are 48.0 million tons, though this depends on future weather.
• Germany: A 10% reduction in soybean cultivation area is expected in Germany this year, resulting in a projected 4,500-ton shortfall. Improved yields could offset some of this. Germany’s reliance on soy imports, mainly from the U.S., is driving strategies for enhancing domestic cultivation for sustainability.

In summary, the global soybean market is marked by steady demand, particularly from China, alongside various climatic challenges affecting planting schedules and yield forecasts. Multiple regions are adapting to these conditions by pursuing greater cultivation self-sufficiency.

For more detailed reports on the Soybeans market, including crop health data, 20 years of weather data, pricing, and earnings analysis, visit the CropGPT website.