CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 39

CropGPT - Podcast for Soft Commodities

Global Cocoa Market Weekly Summary: Key Highlights for September 29, 2024

• Ivory Coast: As the world’s leading cocoa producer, Ivory Coast is raising farmgate prices to $3,400 per ton due to a shortfall in harvests, influenced by climate challenges such as flooding and diseases. Despite cocoa futures reaching highs of over $11,000 per ton, recent corrections have brought prices down to around $7,500 per ton. Smuggling continues to be a significant issue, with an estimated 200,000 tons lost this season.
• Nigeria: The country saw a 304% increase in cocoa exports early in 2024, compensating for production deficits in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Production remains stable at 280,000 metric tons, with the government aiming to boost output to 500,000 metric tons by adopting advanced and sustainable farming techniques.
• Ghana: The country faces reduced yields and competition from gold mining, which threatens traditional cocoa lands. A 45% increase in farmgate prices aims to support farmer incomes amid these challenges. However, the economic allure of mining and environmental degradation continue to threaten cocoa farming’s viability.
• Market Trends: New York cocoa futures (CCZ24) rose by 1.04%, signaling a bullish outlook, while London futures (CAZ24) fell by 1.54%, reflecting regional disparities that could disrupt the global cocoa supply-demand balance.
• Regulatory Impact: The Ivory Coast has implemented measures to curb cocoa bean hoarding with sanctions, reducing excess stockpiling. Meanwhile, the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation poses challenges in tracking cocoa supply chains, potentially affecting smallholder participation in global markets.

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