I migliori Stephen Pavlick podcast (2024)

1
RenMac Off-Script: October Surprise 31:01

4d ago31:01

31:01

RenMac talks about the payroll surprise, the importance of NC and PA to Trump and Harris, elevated equity volatility and quiescent credit spreads and the Fed’s path into year’s endDi Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Is Kamala Under-Valued? 25:44

11d ago25:44

25:44

RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, why Kevin Warsh is off-base in his criticism of the Fed’s September decision, and market seasonality.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Banker in Training 25:42

18d ago25:42

25:42

RenMac discusses this week’s data, the prospects of a shadow Fed Chair, the latest polls and candidates’ performance, China and how the overbought condition in yields tilts us toward cyclicality.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Trump Bump 27:30

25d ago27:30

27:30

RenMac discusses: The latest shift in polls in the continued razor-thin election. The latest inflation data and how the sequence of jobs and inflation is impacting the Fed’s trajectory. The overbought condition in yields and the marginal benefit it should have for cyclicals vs defensive names. The bullish spread between equity volatility (VIX) and …

1
RenMac Off-Script: A Jobs Jolt 26:23

1M ago26:23

26:23

RenMac discusses the latest payroll surprise, the impact Helene is having on polling, China’s historic market strength, the improvement of cyclicals vs defensives, political October surprises and the upcoming inflation data.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: China Turns 19:44

1M ago19:44

19:44

Neil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Sticking the Landing 22:53

2M ago22:53

22:53

RenMac discusses the expected 50bps rate cut, implications for future cuts, the trajectory of the data going forward, the market impact and the latest polling around battleground states.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Trump Takes De Bait 18:38

2M ago18:38

18:38

RenMac discusses why 50bps makes the most sense, the impact the debate is likely to have on the election, the changes in capital requirements at banks, and some bright spots in energy and silver.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Pin 50 27:22

2M ago27:22

27:22

RenMac discusses the weak August employment report, why the next decision really is less about consensus and more about what Powell thinks, a preview of the Trump/Harris debate, and the defensive nature in the equity markets.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Game Day Walk Thru 17:04

2M ago17:04

17:04

With Neil and Steve on the beach, Jeff and Kevin walk through the market’s message, where the strength and weakness are building and fading, and what it means for the remainder of the year. The team dives deeper into the historical reactions seen by sectors and industries after the Fed’s first rate-cut in a cycle. Happy Labor Day weekend.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Revisionist History 31:52

2M ago31:52

31:52

The RenMac Team discusses the DNC and latest in the general election campaign, the folly of price controls, the sharp downward revision to payroll employment and what it means for the Fed ahead of Jackson Hole, the recent breakout in gold, balance sheet versus income recession, and how tight policy is based on the gap between two-year yields and th…

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Markets vs Media: Which One is Gaslighting? 27:58

3M ago27:58

27:58

RenMac discusses the current sensitive state of markets and the possible impacts of the upcoming decision on rate cuts, Kamala’s potential economic policies, the DNC, and the influence of the presidential election on downballot races, and what next week’s data (as well as Jackson Hole) could mean for markets going forward.…

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Claims, Cuts, and Complacency 22:24

3M ago22:24

22:24

RenMac discusses initial jobless claims, the baseline for rate cuts, and the growing risk of complacency from the Fed and market participants, Kamala’s VP pick (why wasn’t it Shapiro?) and the changing presidential odds, the Nikkei and the liquidity picture, as well as important data on deck for next week.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: The Fed's Folly 22:14

3M ago22:14

22:14

Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Markets are Oversold, but is Kamala Overbought? 23:27

3M ago23:27

23:27

RenMac discusses Harris’s candidacy and her potential picks for Vice President, GDP, inflation data, and what they mean for the Fed’s upcoming rate cuts, dark crosses in yields (why is the two-year yield down?), oversold conditions throughout the market, and important political and economic information to come next week.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: The Fed Will Cut Rates, but Will the Democrats Cut Biden? 23:00

4M ago23:00

23:00

RenMac discusses the possibility and potential implications of Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, his likely replacement (will Democrats bypass Harris?), when and how many times the Fed will cut rates, small cap versus large cap, what recent and upcoming data can show about markets, and the future of the semiconductor trade.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Everyone Biden Time: Rate Cuts to Politics 24:51

4M ago24:51

24:51

RenMac discusses Biden’s struggles and how the Democrats will move forward, Trump’s potential picks for Vice President (is Nikki Haley his best option?), weaker inflation and the potential for a September rate cut, expectations for the retail and auto sectors, and the disconnect between the three Russell indices.…

1
RenMac Legends: A Conversation on the Labor Market with Guy Berger 42:22

4M ago42:22

42:22

Guy Berger is someone I had the good fortune of overlapping with at Bank of America. Over the years, Guy has become my go-to resource for all questions on the labor market. After many years as the Principal Economist at LinkedIn, he is now the Director of Research at the Burning Glass Institute, a research outfit focusing on labor market trends. He…

1
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Walter Deemer 22:50

4M ago22:50

22:50

Bullish Sentiment Thru the Ages Jeff deGraaf talks with Walt Deemer about the elevated bullish sentiment, stories from the nifty-fifty, differentiating good investments vs good companies, the importance of expectations vs narratives, and how it applies today. Enjoy the Holiday Weekend.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls and Politics 23:11

4M ago23:11

23:11

RenMac discusses payrolls and what this means for the Fed in lieu of next week’s core inflation number, what the betting markets are telling us about Kamala Harris’ role on the presidential ticket, how performance in the first half of the year affects the second half, and cyclicality in the current market.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Debate & Switch? 19:40

4M ago19:40

19:40

RenMac discusses the options for Democrats to replace Biden following the debate, how the stock market has reacted to the presidential polls, why Neil thinks the balance of risk suggests that the Fed could make a minor monetary mistake by not cutting in September, the symptoms of liquidity and what the movement in Bitcoin and IPOs might suggest, an…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Biden's Burden 23:16

5M ago23:16

23:16

RenMac discusses why housing is hurting, why economic growth in 2024 will be worse than in 2023, how the Fed's risk distribution has shifted, why this is not a momentum market, the potential outside reversal in Nvidia, the positive correlation between banks and yields, and the dynamics of the upcoming presidential debate.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: The Fed Needs To Get On With It 22:35

5M ago22:35

22:35

RenMac discusses whether global election trends will impact the U.S., the significantly different U.S. presidential election forecasts between 538 and the Economist, the improving inflation picture, why admission by omission suggests a September interest rate cut is likely, how oversold conditions are creating opportunities, and why things may be s…

1
RenMac Off-Script: The Big Bull In Little China 16:41

5M ago16:41

16:41

RenMac discusses the latest payroll print, the political impact of the Trump conviction one week later, the impact of lower yields, the global strength of utilities, and the big bull turn in China.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Conviction Conundrum 18:05

5M ago18:05

18:05

RenMac discusses the political impact of the Trump conviction, how growth isn’t getting away from the Fed, sentiment and the post momentum hang-over industries, and trends vs momentum in China.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Nvidia’s Scary Shadow Over S&P 21:57

5M ago21:57

21:57

RenMac discusses why the Nvidia phenomenon may have overshadowed some broader concerns, why the bond market was down on the PMI print, why the consensus is onsides now on growth, a high alert for housing, capitulation suggests softness in equities for 2024, little change in polls but big change in betting markets in 2024 presidential race.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Debate Bait 26:39

6M ago26:39

26:39

RenMac discusses how Biden agreed to debate on his terms, the encouraging inflation print, how much of Biden’s billions have been spent and what Trump could do with them, improving beta vs. average momentum, the peak in short rates, strong election year seasonality, and why China is looking like the U.S. in 2009.…

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Consumer Conundrums 23:07

6M ago23:07

23:07

RenMac discusses how the FDIC fallout may play out next week, the improvement in small banks, the consumer credit conundrum, the short rate risk/reward scenario, and the consumer momentum in China.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: The Economy Isn’t Getting Away From The Fed 21:32

6M ago21:32

21:32

RenMac discusses the economic data dump this week, why the realized inflation data will be important, Powell’s case for weaker inflation, why the voters remain sour on the economy, whether Johnson will be removed as speaker now or after November, and the outlook for Chinese growth.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Closer To The End? 19:53

6M ago19:53

19:53

RenMac discusses the low GDP and high inflation reports, how volatile trade figures may have skewed the data to the downside, why the consensus is probably right about growth, the mean reversion in the battleground state polls, why the Supreme Court may delay the federal cases against Trump, how price may be driving sentiment, why you want to be lo…

1
RenMac Off-Script: 3 Pillars of a Low 5:45

7M ago5:45

5:45

Jeff goes solo off-script to talk about the recent equity weakness, the things he looks for to call a tactical bottom and where we stand currently.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Cuts Delayed Not Derailed 18:50

7M ago18:50

18:50

RenMac discusses the implications of the global gold rush led by central banks; why the latest inflation report still points to when, not if the Fed cuts interest rates; how a cooling labor market means consumers could struggle to absorb higher inflation; the risks Powell & Co. face in deciding to do (or not do); why the adage “sell in May and go a…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Eclipse the Bears 19:18

7M ago19:18

19:18

RenMac discusses the bullish jobs number, why it might not keep the Fed from cutting in June, how it might send neutral rates higher, why No Labels ended up with no candidate and who benefits, how rising geopolitical risks are raising prices at the pump for voters, the impact of broader market participation, and why manufacturing is picking up.…

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Powell Told Us What He Told Us 15:44

7M ago15:44

15:44

RenMac discusses Fed Governor Waller’s comments, context, and contrast with Powell; reconciling GDI and GDP; Biden’s bump in the Bloomberg battleground state poll, and some evidence of the momentum trade unwinding.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Political & Productivity Paradox 19:06

8M ago19:06

19:06

RenMac discusses how Michigan may determine the 2024 presidential outcome and how it is driving Biden’s EV policies, why the six months of progress on inflation is outweighing the previous two months of setbacks for Powell & Co., June cut looking likely, the productivity paradox and how it takes time to realize the gains from AI, why a partial gov’…

1
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Ethan Harris 44:49

8M ago44:49

44:49

For nearly three decades, Ethan Harris was a fixture on Wall Street. After a stint at the New York Fed, Ethan went to Lehman Brothers where he served as the firm’s Chief US Economist. I had the good fortune of working for and learning from Ethan during his time as Head of Global Economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, from where he retired last…

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: TikTok Trade 22:30

8M ago22:30

22:30

Neil and Steve welcome Kevin to the podcast to discuss Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s desire to replace Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the House vote to put TikTok on the clock, how China might retaliate against U.S. companies, what copper and commodities are saying, how the U.S. economic outperformance is benefiting Mexico and …

1
RenMac Off-Script: Bullish Zone 20:18

8M ago20:18

20:18

RenMac discusses how the payroll print is bullish for the soft-landing camp, why you should keep watching the unemployment number, how both parties saw what they wanted to in Biden’s SOTU, the takeaways from Powell’s testimony, why there is still momentum in the market, how gold is breaking out, and why you should be careful with sentiment.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Momentum Vs. Beta 15:20

8M ago15:20

15:20

RenMac discusses the relief rally in response to inflation data coming in as expected, why a stronger economy doesn’t linearly map to inflation, how a May Fed cut could be underpriced, another gov’t can-kick, how Michigan sent warning signs to both candidates, whether Haley will still in after Super Tuesday, the firmness of global indices, and rela…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Fiscal and Fed Fiasco 19:29

9M ago19:29

19:29

Howard joins Jeff and Steve to discuss the depressing U.S. debt outlook from the CBO, how the transformation of Japan’s economy is impacting global markets, the pace of the Fed slowing quantitative tightening, the need to monitor the impact of 10yr yields on equities, why a lower level of bank reserves is an important indicator, why one should be c…

1
RenMac Off-Script: No-mentum 22:03

9M ago22:03

22:03

RenMac discusses the volatility around the recent economic data, moderating inflation expectations, the correlation between air freight and industrial production, the crowded calendar that awaits Congress when it returns, why Neil wasn’t impressed with his Moscow grocery experience, what is and is not a momentum market, and whether bond yields are …

1
RenMac Off-Script: How Much Did Hur Hurt Biden? 19:49

9M ago19:49

19:49

RenMac discusses the good, bad, and ugly for Biden in the Special Counsel report, Neil’s affinity for pop culture, how stronger productivity may be keeping inflation under control, why China may be so bad that it is good, the limited U.S. exposure to FX risk from China, and whether presidential race odds are influencing the S&P.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: A Flukey Month 25:02

9M ago25:02

25:02

RenMac discusses why the flukey payroll report may reduce the Fed’s sense of urgency, why the weather mattered in January, how a boost in productivity may also be a boost to earnings, how employment is more of a byproduct of a strong economy than a cause, whether the disconnect between economists and voters on the Biden economy is narrowing, why th…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Extreme Options 19:53

9M ago19:53

19:53

RenMac discusses Nikki Haley’s prospects, Trump’s Veep-stakes, how voters are viewing an improving economy, the path of least resistance, why Tesla is starting to crack, whether homebuilders should be worried, how pockets of tech options could be concerning, and why Chinese tech sentiment may be setting up nicely.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Retail Sales & Retail Politics 18:43

10M ago18:43

18:43

RenMac discusses why Nikki Haley’s path to the presidency beyond NH is not a bright one, how better than expected retail sales and residential housing figures suggest a strong economic outlook, the great debate over when and how much the Fed will cut interest rates, why Fed Governor Waller is not riding the team transitory train, why the weakness i…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Canceling That 70s Show 28:34

10M ago28:34

28:34

RenMac discusses why markets shrugged off the latest CPI miss, how the Fed places more emphasis on the PCE, why data may be driving the Fed more than politics, why U.S. bonds are more bullish than elsewhere, how more states resemble IA than NH in the GOP Primary, the importance of Taiwan’s presidential election, the parallels between the 1970s and …

1
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Point To Productivity 18:27

10M ago18:27

18:27

RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print points to productivity gains, why 3-to-4 rate cuts are more likely than 6, how geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Taiwan could upend the 2024 economic outlook, global market breakouts, and the broadening of market gains beyond the magnificent 7.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Yes, There is a Santa Clause 17:01

10M ago17:01

17:01

Renmac discusses how dollar weakness contributes to global growth, the history of 8-consecutive weeks of S&P gains, the latest in the primary ballot battle, excessive inflows and the busy week/month ahead. Happy New Year.Di Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Trash vs. Treasure 21:16

11M ago21:16

21:16

RenMac discusses how the latest PCE print supports a March Fed cut but why it may not go as far as the market is pricing, whether animal spirits can lead to irrational exuberance, why trash is outperforming treasure, why the U.S. Supreme Court may reach a different decision than the CO Supreme Court regarding Trump’s eligibility.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Escape Velocity 19:56

11M ago19:56

19:56

RenMac discusses the escape velocity in equities, Powell’s press conference, why a March cut is looking more likely, who wore the boldest sweater on TV, why the rate of inflation is declining despite rather than b/c of the Inflation Reduction Act, the breakout in banks and REITs, and frothy animal spirits.…

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