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Big gamble or smart move? Powell hints at 50bp hike
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Today's focus is on the major data that has reshaped expectations for central bank interest rates. Generally, we're observing two things: the activity data is holding up better than expected, and inflation is proving more persistent than hoped. As a consequence, markets are bracing for higher rates for a longer period.
Let's start with the US. We have seen a string of positive surprises in recent macroeconomic data. The latest reports on GDP, retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation have all exceeded expectations in the past month. Even the latest services PMI from the Institute for Supply Management beat consensus and was comfortably above 50. Initial jobless claims and new claims for unemployment benefits have fallen again, with no significant uptick in layoffs, despite ongoing recession concerns.
What does this mean for the markets? Investors have gone from pricing in one to two additional Fed hikes to now expecting three to four. Even FOMC Chair Powell has opened up the possibility of a 50bp return in March.
We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk
Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!
88 episodi
Fetch error
Hmmm there seems to be a problem fetching this series right now. Last successful fetch was on April 29, 2024 12:51 ()
What now? This series will be checked again in the next day. If you believe it should be working, please verify the publisher's feed link below is valid and includes actual episode links. You can contact support to request the feed be immediately fetched.
Manage episode 357583327 series 3413702
Today's focus is on the major data that has reshaped expectations for central bank interest rates. Generally, we're observing two things: the activity data is holding up better than expected, and inflation is proving more persistent than hoped. As a consequence, markets are bracing for higher rates for a longer period.
Let's start with the US. We have seen a string of positive surprises in recent macroeconomic data. The latest reports on GDP, retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation have all exceeded expectations in the past month. Even the latest services PMI from the Institute for Supply Management beat consensus and was comfortably above 50. Initial jobless claims and new claims for unemployment benefits have fallen again, with no significant uptick in layoffs, despite ongoing recession concerns.
What does this mean for the markets? Investors have gone from pricing in one to two additional Fed hikes to now expecting three to four. Even FOMC Chair Powell has opened up the possibility of a 50bp return in March.
We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk
Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!
88 episodi
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