Corn Rallies to 6-Month Highs

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🌾 Grain and Oilseed Complex Rally on Thursday 📈
The grain and oilseed complex saw a notable rally on Thursday, with the soybean meal market leading the charge, gaining a whopping 4.4% 📊. Soybean futures finished sharply higher, while soybean oil ended marginally lower 🌱. The March 2025 corn contract gained 5 cents per bushel, posting its best close since June 25th 🌽. Wheat futures saw marginal gains, although they remain stuck in a sideways pattern 📉. This rally reflects strong market dynamics in the broader grain complex.
🌞 Argentina’s Dry Weather Forecast 🌾
Argentina is set to experience dry weather in the coming weeks 🌞. Rainfall across the country’s soybean areas is expected to be scattered and well below normal, which could negatively impact the soybean crop 🌱. Temperatures are forecasted to trend above average during the same period 🔥. The recent rally in soybean meal prices is likely due to concerns about Argentina’s soybean crop. While the extended forecast suggests a return to normal rainfall, farmers in Argentina typically complete soybean planting during the first half of January 🌾.
🇨🇳 China’s Efforts to Boost Cereal Grain Consumption 🌾
China is implementing measures to significantly boost cereal grain consumption over the next ten years 📊. As the world’s largest producer of cereal grains, China still relies on corn and wheat imports to feed its 1.4 billion people 🌍. Despite being the second-largest global corn producer, much of China’s corn is used for livestock feed 🐄. To improve grain production and quality, China plans to focus on developing grain varieties suitable for human consumption 🌾. The country also aims to establish stronger international grain standards and build global partnerships 🤝.
🇷🇺 Russian Wheat Exports to Decline Significantly 🌾
Russian wheat exports are set to decline next season, with Russian consulting group IKAR projecting exports to fall to 41 million metric tons (mmt) during the 2025/2026 season, a 6% decrease from the current season 📉. Wheat exports are expected to decline by 5% this season, although Russia will still remain the world’s leading exporter of wheat 🌍. This reduction is attributed to lower yields in winter crops due to a lack of fall moisture 🌧️. Despite a record wheat export in the first half of this season, government-imposed export restrictions will likely drive the decline 📉.
🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Data 📊
The latest USDA drought monitor shows limited precipitation across the Corn Belt last week 🌽. Drought conditions have largely remained unchanged, although there was some improvement in southeast Kentucky 📉. Precipitation was also limited across the High Plains, where drought conditions stayed the same. Overall, 6% fewer areas in the region are experiencing drought compared to this time last year 🌱. As of the latest data:
54% of US corn is affected by drought 🌽.
47% of US soybeans are impacted 🌱.
27% of US winter wheat and 33% of spring wheat are experiencing drought 🌾.
37% of cattle are in drought-affected areas 🐄.