Episode 5: $RBRK: Crossing the Rubrik-on

Just the Tips (by the Stock Jocks)

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In Episode 5 (recorded May 19, 2024), the Stock Jocks give their customary bull/bear treatment to recent IPO and data security specialist Rubrik ($RBRK). Bruce takes his turn as moderator as Gordon makes the case that the stock is just too cheap on the likely 30%+ growth, even accounting for a cash burn not entirely unlike Gordon’s on a number of wistfully remembered nights in Miami. George points to a host of metrics heading in the wrong direction, including sales force efficiency.

(3:41) The return of Keith Gill (“Roaring Kitty”) and Gordon’s “colorful” analogy for trading “meme” stocks (like $GME and, arguably, $DJT)

(7:46) Gordon has the dark realization that he trades like Tommy Tuberville; why does the senior senator from Alabama have long-dated puts on Lattice Semiconductor ($LSCC)?

(9:54) Observations from software and cloud earnings season (mentions of Episode 3 topic $DOCN, $ORCL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT)

(12:29) Obligatory interest rate/inflation discussion (good time for a pee break)

(14:53) GPT-40 and implications for customer service and sex robot industries

(20:46) The Main Event: Rubrik. Gordon leads an overview of the company; “ Backup with Ransomware protection focused on Cloud”

(40:36) Valuation deep dive

(49:49) Introducing: the Just the Tips “Quant” Department (Nerds!)

(1:05:30) George kicks off the Bear Case

(1:09:13) $RBRK’s “installed base” advantage vs. peers; is growth not as strong as advertised?

(1:18:20) Why George think’s $RBRK’s S-1 “Subscription ARR Contribution Margin” is spurious.

(1:21:02) George does some serious ‘rithmetic to highlight increasingly weak new customer ARR growth despite increasing spend. Is $RBRK’s “new customer engine” broken?

(1:39:24) Bruce declares a “winner” / “besties” give their “real” opinions.