‘A tragic incident in Russia’s airspace’. How Putin was forced into a reluctant half-apology over the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash

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The site of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash near Aktau, Kazakhstan. December 25, 2024.

On December 25, an Embraer 190 passenger plane operated by Azerbaijan Airlines crashed in western Kazakhstan while en route from Baku to Grozny. More than half of the 67 people onboard were killed. Several potential causes were reported in the initial hours after the crash, including a bird strike, bad weather, and an oxygen tank explosion. After investigators examined the wreckage, however, they concluded that a Russian anti-aircraft missile likely damaged the plane. Azerbaijan soon demanded that Russia pay compensation for the crash and hold those responsible criminally liable. Then, on Saturday, Vladimir Putin issued a rare apology over the “tragic incident,” though he stopped short of admitting Russia’s responsibility outright. Meduza tracks the diplomatic fallout from the crash and the ongoing investigations into its cause.

December 25

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An Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane traveling from Baku to Grozny crashes near the city of Aktau in western Kazakhstan, killing 38 people.

Russia’s federal airline regulator initially reports that the crash was caused by a bird strike and that the pilot decided to attempt an emergency landing at an airport in Aktau.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev states that the cause of the crash is still unknown, adding that according to the information he has received, the plane changed course due to poor weather conditions and headed toward Aktau Airport, where it ultimately crashed.

Initial reports

• Azerbaijan Airlines plane with 67 onboard crashes in Kazakhstan, over 30 survivors reported

December 26

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Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov comments on the crash for the first time, warning against speculating about its cause before investigators finish working.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan government sources tell Euronews that a Russian surface-to-air missile launched during “drone activity” over Grozny caused the crash. According to the source, the missile exploded near the plane, damaging its fuselage. The Azerbaijani outlet Caliber.Az also attributes responsibility to Russia, stating that the missile was a Pantsir-S and that Russian electronic warfare systems “completely paralyzed” the civilian plane’s communication systems, causing it to disappear from radar.

A source familiar with Azerbaijan’s investigation tells Reuters that the strike appears to have been unintentional, but that “Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down” of the plane.

Later, Azerbaijani parliament member Rasim Musabekov demands an apology from Russia, saying that it’s “impossible to deny” that the plane was “downed on Russian territory.” He adds that those responsible “must be held criminally liable and pay compensation for the deaths and injuries.”

An early look at the evidence

• Was Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer jet shot down? Marks on the plane’s exterior suggest it was hit by military air defenses. Meduza considers the evidence.

December 27

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The Kremlin reiterates that no conclusions should be drawn about the crash’s cause before the official investigation is over. Dmitry Yadrov, head of Russia’s airline regulator, states that the situation around the Grozny airport on the day of the crash was “complex,” with foggy weather conditions and Ukrainian drones carrying out attacks in the area. “The aircraft commander made two unsuccessful attempts to land in Grozny. Other airports were suggested, and the commander decided to head to Aktau,” he says.

Azerbaijan Airlines reports that, according to preliminary data, the plane was subjected to “external physical and technical interference.”

Azerbaijani Minister of Digital Development and Transport Rashad Nabiyev becomes the first official to state outright that a weapon caused the crash, noting that surviving passengers and crew members reported hearing an explosion while flying over Grozny. “The investigation will determine which weapon was used,” he says.

December 28

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Russian President Vladimir Putin calls Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to apologize for the plane crash, though he stops short of admitting Russia’s responsibility. Putin acknowledges that the “tragic incident” occurred “in Russia’s airspace” and offers his condolences to the victims’ families. He notes that Grozny was under attack by Ukrainian drones at the time and that Russian air defenses were actively working to repel them. Putin also says that Russian federal investigators have opened a criminal case into possible violations of air traffic safety rules.

Putin’s muted apology

• Putin apologizes over Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash, says ‘tragic incident’ occurred as Russia repelled Ukrainian drone attack

Azerbaijan’s presidential office later releases its own account of the conversation, stating that Putin apologized for the fact that the plane “was subjected to external physical and technical interference in Russian airspace.” Aliyev’s office also reports that Aliyev informed Putin of specific evidence indicating that the plane was struck by an external object.

December 29

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The Russian Investigative Committee reports that its chairman held a phone call with Azerbaijan’s prosecutor general to discuss the ongoing investigation into the crash.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev criticizes Russia for offering only “absurd theories” in the first three days after the crash and for attempting to “cover up the issue.” He demands that Russia acknowledge responsibility for the crash, hold those responsible criminally accountable, and pay compensation to Azerbaijan, and the affected passengers and crew members.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov says only that Putin and Aliyev “continued their phone conversation today, discussing various issues related to the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash.”

Why does Putin feel pressure to apologize?

On the latest episode of his podcast In Moscow’s Shadows, Russia expert Mark Galeotti outlined two key reasons why Putin likely concluded that Russia couldn’t afford to spoil its relationship with Azerbaijan — and why, as a result, he decided to issue an uncharacteristic half-apology.

First of all, Galeotti noted, Baku is a crucial partner for helping Russia circumvent Western energy sanctions and keep its economy going. “Azerbaijan is absolutely crucial for, in effect, laundering Russian gas,” he said. “The European Union sort of sanctimoniously claims that it is buying Russian gas, but what we actually have is huge amounts of Russian gas being exported to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan then sells it to the E.U. as Azeri gas, and everyone goes along with the pretense — because the E.U. needs that gas.”

Additionally, Galeotti said, Putin needs to stay in Turkey’s good graces — and Azerbaijan is “increasingly an ally client state of Turkey.” This is because Moscow hopes Ankara will help it persuade Syria’s new leadership to allow Russia to keep its bases in the country, “which can then allow it to more easily project power and support its operations in Africa.”

The future of Russia’s bases in Syria

• Russia is at risk of losing its military bases in Syria. Here’s what that means for its Africa operations.