BIGGEST RISK with Matt Brodnik

Commercial Real Estate Pro Network

J Darrin Gross

I'd like to ask you, Matt Brodnik, what is the BIGGEST RISK?

Matt Brodnik

I mean, I think I mean, I've been harping on tenant demand all this time. And as I mentioned, you know, tenant demand hasn't disappeared, it's, it's still there. I mean, you know, we talked about demand, kind of reverting to the mean. And right now, I'd say demand is fallen below the mean, a little bit, which is expected. I mean, tenants lease a lot of space and 21 and 22 leads to more than it turns out, they may need now, but they, they're not giving it back, they still still need it. And I think what happens in recession, which we haven't seen, we're not in a recession right now. And there's talk right now with the Fed that, that this whole idea of a soft landing, you know, employments near 100% Here, you know, we still have economic strength and growth, and as long as we do tenants are going to need space. And I think the biggest risk for us right now is is is recession, and, you know, tenants actually giving space back like they did during the global financial crisis, and that demand disappeared. And I think then, you know, it's, that's the, that's the big concern, that man going, you know, really, you know, falling through. And, you know, we talked about it, you know, if you talk to an office investor in 2021, during the pandemic, you know, they didn't forecast that this whole return to work thing would, or this work from home thing would last for four years. They didn't even see it as a risk at all. So I think, and that's what's killed the office world, right, is that tenant demand is completely disappearing, and not just disappear, but there could be giving space back, it's going backwards. So that's the risk, we see is this whole integrated environment. You know, maybe there's a another black swan event, something that happened, obviously, we talked about as a black swan event, maybe you can't predict what it is, but it seems like, you know, war in world between Russia and Ukraine and, you know, Israel and everything going on in the world, that is a real risk that something else comes in, there's another shock to the system. So that kind of demand, that's the thing that we you know, we stay up at night thinking about and, and focused on.