LW - Schelling points in the AGI policy space by mesaoptimizer

The Nonlinear Library: LessWrong

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Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Schelling points in the AGI policy space, published by mesaoptimizer on June 27, 2024 on LessWrong. I've been thinking about memetically fit Schelling points in the AGI policy space. I'll describe four such "Schelling policies", and use them as pedagogical examples. Shut it all down MIRI's new stated objective is the clearest example of a Schelling policy: "Shut it all down". MIRI states that they want governments to coordinate to pause all AI research that involves smarter-than-human systems. Laypeople will find this policy easy to understand, since they can rely on the shared cultural knowledge of CFC bans and international nuclear disarmament as case studies. If you want to coordinate a large number of people coherently towards furthering a particular policy, "you get about five words" that you can make 'common knowledge' such that people can coordinate in a specific direction. The ease of communicating the policy makes a big difference in such conditions. When you attempt to communicate an idea widely, you'll notice that people usually end up with multiple slightly (or sometimes wildly) differing copies of the original idea. If you've played the Telephone game, you've experienced just how much information can be lost as an idea spreads from one person to another. In the context of policies, individual people's beliefs and incentives will warp the instantiation of the policy they will communicate and support. (For example, you'll find companies lobbying regulators to carve out exceptions that benefit them.) Here's where Schelling points are invaluable: they serve as natural attractors in the space of ideas, and therefore enable people to 'error-correct' the idea they encounter and figure out the policy that everyone is coordinating around. "Shut it all down" is a Schelling point. "Shut it all down if we see evidence of unprompted deception and power-seeking in AGI models" is not a Schelling point, you have multiple free variables that can and will be optimized to benefit the people spreading the idea -- which can result in a lack of coordination and the idea being outcompeted by memetically fitter ideas. "Prevent the training of models using compute greater than 1025 floating point operations" also has a free variable: why exactly 1025 floating point operations? Why not 1024 or 1026? Until 1025 floating point operations becomes a Schelling number, the policy containing it is not a Schelling point. Effective Accelerationism (e/acc) The biggest difference between e/acc and the PauseAI memeplexes is that e/acc doesn't seem to have a coherent set of goals and beliefs. Here are a bunch of memes that e/acc people tend to espouse: "It's time to build." (also the last line of The Techno-Optimist Manifesto) "Come and take it." (where "it" refers to GPUs here) "Accelerate or die." At a first glance, one might say that e/acc isn't a Schelling policy -- it seems less like a coherent policy, and more like a set of 'vibes', verbal and non-verbal statements designed to create a desired emotional impact, regardless of the actual content. I disagree. A policy (or well, a memeplex) does not need to have an explicitly coherent set of beliefs and goals for it to result in coordinating people towards particular consequences. You might expect this to reduce the spread rate of this particular policy, but e/acc specifically compensates for it by being significantly more fun and socially, financially, and professionally profitable to coordinate around. For example, venture capital firms such as a16z want the opportunity to make a lot of money from the gold rush that is the race to AGI, and a lot of software developers want a shot at making billions of dollars if their startup succeeds. The possibility of regulations would cause the music to stop, and they don't want that. In fact, you don...