I migliori Eliezer Yudkowsky podcast (2024)

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“ASIs will not leave just a little sunlight for Earth ” by Eliezer Yudkowsky 19:11

20d ago19:11

19:11

A common claim among e/accs is that, since the solar system is big, Earth will be left alone by superintelligences. A simple rejoinder is that just because Bernard Arnault has $170 billion, does not mean that he'll give you $77.18. Earth subtends only 4.54e-10 = 0.0000000454% of the angular area around the Sun, according to GPT-o1.[1] Asking an ASI…

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“Overview of strong human intelligence amplification methods” by TsviBT 24:47

4d ago24:47

24:47

How can we make many humans who are very good at solving difficult problems? Summary (table of made-up numbers) I made up the made-up numbers in this table of made-up numbers; therefore, the numbers in this table of made-up numbers are made-up numbers. Call to action If you have a shitload of money, there are some projects you can give money to tha…

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Ubik 06: Pondering Kafkaesque Dimensions 1:21:44

5d ago1:21:44

1:21:44

Welcome back to PKD, the show where Brian and Steven dive into the weird world and weirder mind of Phillip K. Dick! In this episode, we wrap up Ubik and talk about some of the cool, mind-bending stuff it makes you think about. Come back next week for the first two chapters of Man in the High Castle!Di The Methods of Rationality Podcast

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“Struggling like a Shadowmoth” by Raemon 12:27

10d ago12:27

12:27

This post is probably hazardous for one type of person in one particular growth stage, and necessary for people in a different growth stage, and I don't really know how to tell the difference in advance. If you read it and feel like it kinda wrecked you send me a DM. I'll try to help bandage it. One of my favorite stories growing up was Star Wars: …

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“Three Subtle Examples of Data Leakage” by abstractapplic 7:48

10d ago7:48

7:48

This is a description of my work on some data science projects, lightly obfuscated and fictionalized to protect the confidentiality of the organizations I handled them for (and also to make it flow better). I focus on the high-level epistemic/mathematical issues, and the lived experience of working on intellectual problems, but gloss over the timel…

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“the case for CoT unfaithfulness is overstated” by nostalgebraist 21:45

13d ago21:45

21:45

[Meta note: quickly written, unpolished. Also, it's possible that there's some more convincing work on this topic that I'm unaware of – if so, let me know] In research discussions about LLMs, I often pick up a vibe of casual, generalized skepticism about model-generated CoT (chain-of-thought) explanations. CoTs (people say) are not trustworthy in g…

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“Cryonics is free” by Mati_Roy 3:27

13d ago3:27

3:27

I've been wanting to write a nice post for a few months, but should probably just write a one sooner instead. This is a top-level post not because it's a long text, but because it's important text. Anyways. Cryonics is pretty much money-free now—one of the most affordable ways to dispose of your body post-mortem. In the west coast in the USA, from …

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Ubik 05: Probing Known Dimensions 55:02

12d ago55:02

55:02

Welcome back to PKD, the show where Brian and Steven dive into the weird world and weirder mind of Phillip K. Dick! In this episode, the weirdness keeps on coming! Come back next week for the last 4 chapters!Di The Methods of Rationality Podcast

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“Stanislav Petrov Quarterly Performance Review” by Ricki Heicklen 9:26

14d ago9:26

9:26

Quarterly Performance Review, Autumn 1983 Colonel Yuri Kuznetsov looked out the window anxiously. The endless gray landscape did little to soothe his nerves. He only had one employee review left to get through, but he’d saved the hardest one for last. He wasn’t upset about having to dismiss Lieutenant Colonel Petrov—he couldn’t wait to be rid of th…

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“Laziness death spirals” by PatrickDFarley 16:06

14d ago16:06

16:06

I’ve claimed that Willpower compounds and that small wins in the present make it easier to get bigger wins in the future. Unfortunately, procrastination and laziness compound, too. You’re stressed out for some reason, so you take the evening off for a YouTube binge. You end up staying awake a little later than usual and sleeping poorly. So the next…

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“‘Slow’ takeoff is a terrible term for ‘maybe even faster takeoff, actually’” by Raemon 3:03

14d ago3:03

3:03

For a long time, when I heard "slow takeoff", I assumed it meant "takeoff that takes longer calendar time than fast takeoff." (i.e. what is now referred to more often as "short timelines" vs "long timelines."). I think Paul Christiano popularized the term, and it so happened he both expected to see longer timelines and smoother/continuous takeoff. …

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Ubik 04: Perception Kaleidoscope Dimension 58:00

19d ago58:00

58:00

Welcome back to PKD, the show where Brian and Steven dive into the weird world and weirder mind of Phillip K. Dick! In this episode, things are getting super weird. Are they dead? Is everyone dead? Come back next week for chapters 11, 12, and 13! Note: I’m giving myself a pass for being less coherent than usual. I didn’t check until after recording…

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“Skills from a year of Purposeful Rationality Practice ” by Raemon 12:39

22d ago12:39

12:39

A year ago, I started trying to deliberate practice skills that would "help people figure out the answers to confusing, important questions." I experimented with Thinking Physics questions, GPQA questions, Puzzle Games , Strategy Games, and a stupid twitchy reflex game I had struggled to beat for 8 years[1]. Then I went back to my day job and tried…

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“How I started believing religion might actually matter for rationality and moral philosophy ” by zhukeepa 13:38

24d ago13:38

13:38

After the release of Ben Pace's extended interview with me about my views on religion, I felt inspired to publish more of my thinking about religion in a format that's more detailed, compact, and organized. This post is the first publication in my series of intended posts about religion. Thanks to Ben Pace, Chris Lakin, Richard Ngo, Renshin Lauren …

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“Did Christopher Hitchens change his mind about waterboarding? ” by Isaac King 12:53

25d ago12:53

12:53

There's a popular story that goes like this: Christopher Hitchens used to be in favor of the US waterboarding terrorists because he though it's wasn't bad enough to be torture.. Then he had it tried on himself, and changed his mind, coming to believe it isn't torture. (Context for those unfamiliar: in the decade following 9/11, the US engaged in a …

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Ubik 03: Phantasmal Kinetics Discussion 49:19

26d ago49:19

49:19

Welcome back to PKD, the show where Brian and Steven dive into the weird world and weirder mind of Phillip K. Dick! In this episode, the crew gets to the moon and shit goes sideways right away. Come back next week for chapters 8, 9, and 10!Di The Methods of Rationality Podcast

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“The Great Data Integration Schlep ” by sarahconstantin 18:26

28d ago18:26

18:26

Midjourney, “Fourth Industrial Revolution Digital Transformation”This is a little rant I like to give, because it's something I learned on the job that I’ve never seen written up explicitly. There are a bunch of buzzwords floating around regarding computer technology in an industrial or manufacturing context: “digital transformation”, “the Fourth I…

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“Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting ” by nikos, Peter Mühlbacher, Lawrence Phillips, dschwarz 18:18

29d ago18:18

18:18

[Conflict of interest disclaimer: We are FutureSearch, a company working on AI-powered forecasting and other types of quantitative reasoning. If thin LLM wrappers could achieve superhuman forecasting performance, this would obsolete a lot of our work.] Widespread, misleading claims about AI forecasting Recently we have seen a number of papers – (Sc…

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“OpenAI o1 ” by Zach Stein-Perlman 0:22

30d ago0:22

0:22

This is a link post. --- First published: September 12th, 2024 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bhY5aE4MtwpGf3LCo/openai-o1 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“The Best Lay Argument is not a Simple English Yud Essay ” by J Bostock 8:46

1M ago8:46

8:46

Epistemic status: these are my own opinions on AI risk communication, based primarily on my own instincts on the subject and discussions with people less involved with rationality than myself. Communication is highly subjective and I have not rigorously A/B tested messaging. I am even less confident in the quality of my responses than in the correc…

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“My Number 1 Epistemology Book Recommendation: Inventing Temperature ” by adamShimi 5:19

1M ago5:19

5:19

In my last post, I wrote that no resource out there exactly captured my model of epistemology, which is why I wanted to share a half-baked version of it. But I do have one book which I always recommend to people who want to learn more about epistemology: Inventing Temperature by Hasok Chang. To be very clear, my recommendation is not just to get th…

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“That Alien Message - The Animation ” by Writer 14:32

1M ago14:32

14:32

Our new video is an adaptation of That Alien Message, by @Eliezer Yudkowsky. This time, the text has been significantly adapted, so I include it below. Part 1 Picture a world just like ours, except the people are a fair bit smarter: in this world, Einstein isn’t one in a million, he's one in a thousand. In fact, here he is now. He's made all the sa…

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Ubik 02: Big (PK) Dick Energy 1:12:10

1M ago1:12:10

1:12:10

Welcome back to PKD, the show where Brian and Steven dive into the weird world and weirder mind of Phillip K. Dick! In this episode we assemble the crew with chapters 3, 4, and 5. Next week we’ll see what this rag-tag group of meta humans gets up to in chapters 6 and 7!Di The Methods of Rationality Podcast

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#13 Aaron Bergman and Max Alexander debate the Very Repugnant Conclusion 1:53:51

1M ago1:53:51

1:53:51

In this episode, Aaron Bergman and Max Alexander are back to battle it out for the philosophy crown, while I (attempt to) moderate. They discuss the Very Repugnant Conclusion, which, in the words of Claude, "posits that a world with a vast population living lives barely worth living could be considered ethically inferior to a world with an even lar…

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“Pay Risk Evaluators in Cash, Not Equity ” by Adam Scholl 1:33

1M ago1:33

1:33

Personally, I suspect the alignment problem is hard. But even if it turns out to be easy, survival may still require getting at least the absolute basics right; currently, I think we're mostly failing even at that. Early discussion of AI risk often focused on debating the viability of various elaborate safety schemes humanity might someday devise—d…

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“Survey: How Do Elite Chinese Students Feel About the Risks of AI? ” by Nick Corvino 23:46

1M ago23:46

23:46

Intro In April 2024, my colleague and I (both affiliated with Peking University) conducted a survey involving 510 students from Tsinghua University and 518 students from Peking University—China's two top academic institutions. Our focus was on their perspectives regarding the frontier risks of artificial intelligence. In the People's Republic of Ch…

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Ubik 01: Psychic Key Discussions 47:57

1M ago47:57

47:57

Welcome back to PKD, the show where Brian and Steven dive into the weird world and weirder mind of Phillip K. Dick! We started off light with just the first couple of chapters to get our sea legs. Next week we’re reading chapters 3, 4 and 5.Di The Methods of Rationality Podcast

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“things that confuse me about the current AI market. ” by DMMF 4:04

1M ago4:04

4:04

Paging Gwern or anyone else who can shed light on the current state of the AI market—I have several questions. Since the release of ChatGPT, at least 17 companies, according to the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard, have developed AI models that outperform it. These companies include Anthropic, NexusFlow, Microsoft, Mistral, Alibaba, Hugging Face, Go…

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