Is 2024 a Repeat of 2016? Exploring the Eerie Parallels

Narativ with Zev Shalev (Audio)

The parallels between 2024 and 2016 are striking and impossible to ignore:

• Trump as the Candidate: Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, and that entails unprecedented support from Russia.
• Female Democratic Nominee: Like Hillary Clinton in 2016, Kamala Harris faces unique challenges as a woman running for the highest office.
• Tight Polls in Battleground States: We're seeing razor-thin margins in key states, reminiscent of the nail-biting finish in 2016.
• Disinformation Campaigns: As I noted in yesterday's show, we're facing an "onslaught of disinformation" that eerily mirrors the 2016 landscape.

Green Shoots in the Data

I asked Carl Allen, author of "The Polls Weren't Wrong," how he viewed the two elections on last night’s show. Allen says his 2024 forecast is not as close as other analysts’, putting Kamala Harris in a far more advantageous polling position than Hillary Clinton was in 2016.

Here are some of the "green shoots" that Carl sees in the data.

1. Closer to 50%: Allen points out that Harris is polling closer to the crucial 50% mark in critical states, which he argues is more important than lead size.
2. Fewer Undecideds: Unlike 2016, there are fewer undecided voters this time around, potentially reducing last-minute swings.
3. Fewer Third-Party Candidates: The 2024 race has fewer prominent third-party candidates, simplifying the electoral math.

Allen emphasizes that Harris's chances are better than a toss-up, albeit just barely. He puts her probability of winning at about 66%, adding, "A 34 or one in three chance that Trump wins doesn't let me sleep well at night."

He also calls 2016 an outlier election that shouldn’t be viewed as very predictive. While this offers some cautious optimism, it reminds me that everything about this election, like 2016, is abnormal.

2024’s Wild Cards

Trump's strategy in 2024, like 2016 “is asymmetrical. Instead of running an on-message campaign, he's running an absolute onslaught of disinformation."

His alliance with X’s Elon Musk is an unprecedented national security crisis connecting the GOP nominee to a known Russian disinformation agent who has the most prominent news app in the world at his disposal to spread disinformation.

There are legitimate concerns about foreign actors like Bibi Netanyahu, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin attempting to sway the election by inventing or heightening international crises.

The Specter of Violence: The implicit threat of violence if Trump doesn’t win echoes the 2020 election.

Biden Sounds The Alarm

The gravity of the disinformation threat was underscored today by President Biden himself. In response to false claims about hurricane relief efforts, Biden condemned what he called "a reckless, irresponsible, relentless promotion of disinformation and outright lies."

Biden explicitly named Trump, stating he "has led the onslaught of lies." echoing the "onslaught of disinformation" referred to in yesterday's show.

Carl Allen’s book “The Polls Weren’t Wrong” brings an exciting new perspective to our understanding of polls and helps us be more precise about forecasting results, especially during unprecedented unpredictability.

What do you think about the parallels and differences between 2016 and 2024? Please reply in the comments below.

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