FPV drones are defining the battlefield

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At the end of January 2024 a Russian company from 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment 1 set off to attack in the area of Novomikhailovka, South-West of Donetsk City. The company comprised three T-72s leading one BMP-1 and seven MT-LBs (catastrophic attrition means the Russian Army now uses the MT-LB utility tracked vehicle as an APC). After leaving a hard-topped road the sub-unit fanned out to attack from the line of march across open fields. It didn't get too far. The company was not stopped by mines or other engineering obstacles. Nor was it stopped by artillery or rocket fire. There were no anti-tank engagements and no Ukrainian tanks deployed to counter-attack. In fact, none of the elements of a defensive battle studied by a British Army cadet at Sandhurst, or student at the Defence College at Shrivenham, were present. The company was stopped by $500 FPV drones loaded with explosive charges. All but one vehicle were damaged or destroyed and the survivors fled on foot. 'The price of such inability to learn is the death of people,' lamented the prominent Russian military blogger 'Rybar', 'the loss out of the blue of a heap of equipment for which industry works in three shifts, as well as landscapes of burning columns.' This article is about the developing story of 'the most important component of the battlefield' - the first person view (FPV) drone. Intensity of attacks In 2022, only a handful of FPV-drone attacks were recorded. The Ukrainian Army was the first to appreciate the potential of FPV drones (as opposed to the Mavik-style drones that were becoming ubiquitous). By the summer of 2023, the Russian Army began to use FPV drones in greater numbers. Since that period, attacks have grown exponentially on both sides. In total, there have been 3,917 Russian attacks (with video evidence) as at 8 February. About half hit. Roughly 12% result in destruction of the target (479 targets) and 15% in damage (594 targets). Around 20% miss or are inconclusive. Ukrainian use is ahead but the Russian Army is catching up. Setting aside the attrition - tactical drones of all types, with artillery, have become the biggest battlefield killers - their presence has radically altered the close battle. Both sides are now locked in a stalemate where any movement is quickly detected and threats neutralised by drones. What is being targeted? Analysis of what is being attacked shows clear differences in the targeting strategies of Ukrainian and Russian drone pilots. The Ukrainians mainly attack high-value target platforms, such as tanks, SP guns, EW systems, air defence systems, and logistic stores. The Russians overwhelmingly use FPV drones to support attacks on Ukrainian 'positions' - the trench lines and strong points. Both sides have actually been attacking trenches regularly, with important implications for the design of trenches. Building overhead cover is no longer sufficient; a trench must be at least L-shaped because skilful drone pilots are flying the drones into the trenches. Where are the attacks taking place? With geo-location, open-source monitoring of drone attacks offers insights into where the fighting occurs (much as NASA FIRMS data unintentionally but usefully records heavy artillery or rocket fire as 'heat anomalies'). Tocnhyi.info January 2024 heat maps (shown below) reveal how the most active areas for drone attacks were the Krynky bridgehead in the west and the Avdiivka-Marinka sectors in the east. At the former, Ukrainian defenders on the Dnipro right bank (at a higher elevation than the left bank) are using drones and artillery to keep a much larger Russian force at bay at the 36th Separate Marine Brigade bridgehead. Innovation and democratisation Over 200 firms are involved in drone production in Ukraine. More than 60 drone types have been developed and fielded, which is, in some respects, an unhelpful 'menagerie of drones'. Commercial training providers have sprung up, and drone 'shock companies' have been raised. Crowd-funding ...