September 2025 Harvard Harris Poll Debrief

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

The poll was conducted September 4-5, 2024, among 2,358 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll.

The new poll found that the presidential horse race now sits at 50-50. Harris' favorability and job approval ratings remain at 47%, while Trump holds a 47% favorability rating and 52% job approval rating. Voters believe Harris would do a better job on abortion, climate change, and racial equality, while Trump would do a better job on the economy, immigration, crime, and China. The poll also covers public opinion on the economy and foreign policy.

Other key findings include:

CONGRESSIONAL AND PRESIDENTIAL HORSE RACES BOTH NECK-AND-NECK

The presidential horse race is tied at 50-50.

Both presidential candidates are winning their respective party bases: male (50%), white (54%), and rural (59%) voters favor Trump, while Black (71%), urban (57%), and college-educated (52%) voters favor Harris.

Independent voters are split almost evenly and 33% of them say they are still weighing their final choice.

50% of Hispanic voters say they will vote for Harris, while 43% say they will vote for Trump — only a 7-point gap. 7% of Hispanic voters say they are still unsure.

CANDIDATES ARE PERCEIVED AS WIDELY DIFFERENT ON THE ISSUES

Major differences emerged between how voters see Trump and how they see Harris on the issues. Harris is seen more often than not as favoring open borders, compassionate enforcement of laws, free healthcare to immigrants, and the switch to electric vehicles. Trump is seen as a stronger ally to Israel, harsher on China, and more of a defender of free speech on social media than Harris.

Trump is seen as favoring a national ban on abortion while Harris is seen as opposing such a ban.

49% of voters say Harris is to the left of them politically, while 50% say Trump is to the right of them politically.

LESS THAN HALF OF VOTERS APPROVE OF CURRENT ADMINISTRATION

Biden approval rating stayed steady at 42% from July. Among minority voters, 66% of Black voters approve, but only 39% of Hispanic voters approve.

Less than half of voters approve of Biden's performance across all issues, with racial equity his highest (47%) and the Israel-Hamas conflict his lowest (34%).

47% of voters approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice President, with high approval from Democrats (87%), Black (71%), and urban (60%) voters.

PERCEPTIONS TOWARD ECONOMY REMAIN PESSIMISTIC

63% of voters believe the U.S. economy is on the wrong track and 62% characterize it as weak, consistent with perceptions over the past year.

42% of voters named inflation as the most important issue facing the country today, up 5 points from July.

48% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, especially among female (53%), 55-64 year-old (55%), and rural (57%) voters.

SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL OVER HAMAS UNCHANGED; YOUNG VOTERS SEEM UNINFORMED ON VENEZUELA ELECTIONS AND MANY FAVOR MADURO

69% of voters say a ceasefire of the Israel-Hamas war should only happen after Hamas is removed from power and all hostages are released (ages 18-24: 45%; ages 65+: 84%). When asked to choose between Israel and Hamas without the choice to remain undecided, 79% continue to favor Israel while 21% favor Hamas.

71% of voters say the execution of six hostages was the fault of Hamas over that of the Israeli government.

More than half of voters have at least heard about the Venezuelan election, but 38% of voters say the Venezuelan election was not stolen by incumbent President Nicolás Maduro (ages 18-24: 49%; ages 25-34: 48%; ages 65+: 27%).

57% of voters say they support the protesters in Venezuela, and 60% support U.S. sanctions on Venezuela for allegations of election fraud, but 56% believe the U.S. government should not engage in another international issue.

Interested in Learning More?

Harvard Harris Poll

Listen to More Episodes

Twitter